The Verdict™ on ___ · Investor series · Match · By Siong Yoong
Notion nearly died in 2015 — the investors who kept watching caught the $10B turn
Notion almost died in 2015 — out of money, down to a handful of people, product torn down to the studs. It came back a $10 billion company. A pass isn’t a no forever.
~4 min read
AI thumbnail — to generate
nearly dead in 2015 / Watchlist
Illustrative read — these are teaching numbers, not a live score.
TL;DR — The mistake isn’t passing on a company that’s genuinely not ready. It’s deleting the email so you never see it get ready. Notion in 2015 was a rational no; Notion three years later was a rational yes — and only the investors who kept watching got to change their mind. Here’s how to keep a pass open.
In 2015 Notion had almost no money and a product nobody wanted. The team shrank to a handful, moved to Kyoto, and rebuilt from scratch rather than fold. The version they came back with became, by 2021, a $10 billion company used by tens of millions.
Verdict Insight™
Most investors treat a pass as a full stop. It should be a bookmark. A founder who rebuilds through near-death is showing you the exact quality you claim to underwrite — and the moment they turn the corner is precisely when they drop off the radar of everyone who wrote them off.
The turn is invisible from the outside unless you’re looking. The investors who caught Notion weren’t smarter about productivity software in 2015; they simply stayed close enough to notice when the product stopped being the reason to say no.
How to read it on your own deals
When you pass, write down what would have to change for it to be a yes, then keep the company where you’ll actually see that change — not in a folder you never reopen. A no with conditions is worth ten times a no you forget you gave. The best re-entries come from deals you already understood once.
Run it by hand — or let a skill run it for you
You can do this yourself — note the condition, keep the company close. When you want it tracked for you, I’ve packaged it into a free Claude skill: a Watchlist that holds your not-yets and flags them the moment they move. Register and it’s yours, no subscription, no catch. Get the free skill →
Sources
The coin split and any Verdict™ score shown above are illustrative teaching reads, not actual Verdict™ assessments. The facts, figures and dates are drawn from the sources listed here.
- Forbes — Notion reaches $10 billion valuation, boosted by remote work. 8 Oct 2021
- The Information — Notion valued at $10.3 billion by Coatue, Sequoia. 8 Oct 2021